Examining fantasy football WR production from Weeks 15 and 610: Who's on an upward trajectory — or downward spiral? Matt HarmonNovember 14, 2025 at 6:17 AM 0 Wide receiver is a volatile position. I preach it every single week on the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast because we so clearly forget it during the months of the offseason when we look at seasonlong stats. However, it's just an empirical fact about the position. As usual, comments are crazy about WRs having bad games. You'll sleep a lot better once you come to grips about how volatile scoring is week to week.
- - Examining fantasy football WR production from Weeks 1-5 and 6-10: Who's on an upward trajectory — or downward spiral?
Matt HarmonNovember 14, 2025 at 6:17 AM
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Wide receiver is a volatile position. I preach it every single week on the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast because we so clearly forget it during the months of the offseason when we look at season-long stats. However, it's just an empirical fact about the position.
As usual, comments are crazy about WRs having bad games. You'll sleep a lot better once you come to grips about how volatile scoring is week to week.These are the top 50 WRs removing injured games. Up, down, up, down, up, down. Take a breath. pic.twitter.com/PcXydqMYcG
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 21, 2025
While volatility can go week to week, some wide receivers have pockets of the season when they are in peak production and others when they go quiet. Sometimes it's just variance, other moments it reveals some truths about their game or usage.
Here, we'll split the season in half and look at the gap in per-game scoring for some big-name receivers based on Weeks 1 to 5 versus Weeks 6 to 10.
First, let's look at wide receivers who have been more productive the last five weeks than at the start of the season.
Here are the WRs with a double-digit gap in their per-game production rankings from Weeks 1 to 5 vs. Weeks 6 to 10, and have been more productive in the last five games.(I excluded WRs who played zero games and/or were outside the Top 80 on either side of the sample) pic.twitter.com/Tei8rDO4p3
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) November 13, 2025
Travis Hunter, Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr.
Let this be yet another painful reminder that Travis Hunter was wiped away from the NFL season just as his rookie campaign was really starting to take off. It also serves as recognition that the Jaguars' passing game has become more stable as the season has gone on, even if it's still underwhelming.
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Washington is a useful slot receiver who should have weeks now that he's played in the slot on over half of his snaps the last two games. In that role, he can be productive. As for Thomas, I'm just hoping he can get past this current ankle injury and string together some positive moments down the stretch. The 2025 season will go down as a down year, no matter what, but it would be great to build some momentum for a bounce-back in 2026.
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
Even as we're in the middle of another week of Eagles offense-fueled media hysteria, this shows the passing game has indeed had some high moments in the last month or so. As I've been harping on all season, it's been clear, dating back to midway through last November, that DeVonta Smith has surpassed A.J. Brown as the WR1 on this team.
On the latest Football 301, @Nate_Tice and I had an extended conversation on why we think DeVonta Smith is playing like a Top 10 NFL WR not just this season but dating back to the end of last year. Through all the talk of "what's wrong with this or that" on the Eagles offense,… pic.twitter.com/fZ1MqyuN9L
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) November 12, 2025
Brown has still had some big weeks and he will likely have a few more in the right spots. The Lions in Week 11 line up well, as they play a ton of man coverage and Brown has still averaged 3.98 yards per route against man coverage this year. He then has dates with the Cowboys, Bears and Raiders over the next month. It will be a bumpy ride for Brown and, less so, for Smith, just based on their play in isolation, but still one worth taking for both.
Jameson Williams
Jameson Williams had two or fewer catches in four of his first five games and was under 50 yards in three of them. It was a painfully slow start to the season. Things have started to pick up for Williams of late, despite a zero-catch game in Week 7, primarily thanks to his Week 10 performance. Dan Campbell took over the play-calling duties from John Morton last week and Williams was an immediate beneficiary.
Campbell said he took over the job because he feels he has "a good feel for our players," and that was definitely reflected in Williams' usage. He was targeted on way more in-breakers and crosses and averaged 9.8 YAC per reception. With Campbell calling plays, I'm more bullish on Williams the rest of the way.
Ladd McConkey
It was so cute when we had to pretend that Ladd McConkey was the third-best wide receiver on the Chargers roster. Things have course-corrected and McConkey has been the primary read in all situations. Only Drake London and Ja'Marr Chase have more targets than him during the last five weeks. I expect McConkey to keep up something close to this level of production the rest of the season, and the first month will look like the fluke.
Josh Downs and Alec Pierce
The other Colts receivers have started to rise up and it hasn't even moved the needle much for Michael Pittman Jr. as a fantasy WR2. He was WR17 in the first five weeks and WR21 in Weeks 6 to 10. The Colts offense is one of the best ecosystems in the NFL and can support multiple pass-catchers. There will be some variance for these guys on a week-by-week basis, so expect some floor weeks like we saw for Downs and Pittman when Pierce went off in a good matchup last week. However, don't lose faith in any of them as useful players down the stretch.
Chris Olave
Chris Olave was second in the NFL in targets in Weeks 1 to 5 but 40th in yards per game with just one touchdown. Over the last five weeks, he's still seeing plenty of volume but ranks seventh in yards per game and has scored three times. The important note here is that Olave was earning that volume.
He's one of the most underrated star wide receivers in the league and now, the production is just catching up. Whether Olave is able to remain in the latter territory of fantasy scoring will be up to rookie quarterback, Tyler Shough. Shough was impressive in Week 10 and has accessed Olave more in the deep area of the field. Olave had a season-high 141 air yards against Carolina last week.
Drake London
Drake London's WR1 overall season is still on the table. At least, that's how he's performed in the last five weeks. I was higher on consensus than London heading into the year and this was how I expected him to be used in the Falcons offense. This offensive unit as a whole always feels at its best when London gets 10-plus targets and I'd expect that to be the mandate the rest of the way. He's the ultimate case for why you shouldn't freak out about slow stretches for players we know are great at football.
Now, let's look at wide receivers who have been less productive the last five weeks than they were at the start of the year.
Here are the WRs with a double-digit gap in their per-game production rankings from Weeks 1 to 5 vs. Weeks 6 to 10, but have been less productive the last five weeks. pic.twitter.com/McxK9Qf3Ze
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) November 13, 2025
Deebo Samuel Sr.
I liked how the Commanders were deploying Samuel to start this season, as he was lining up in the slot more than any other point in his NFL career. That helps ease the decline phase for receivers who struggle to win in man coverage or down the field. Unfortunately, it becomes harder to do that for a still-diminished player as the year goes on and the offense falls into chaos. Samuel will have moments the rest of the way but I feel strongly that his best fantasy days were in September.
Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen
What goes up must come down; as Ladd McConkey has returned to his rightful place as the Chargers' WR1, both Johnston and especially Allen have seen their production dip. I'm more worried about Allen than Johnston, the latter of whom should still have his weeks and was peppered with short passes last week to adjust for an injured offensive line. He won't be as consistent week-to-week as he was in September but he'll have big weeks.
As for Allen, he's played on just 47% of the team's snaps in Weeks 6 to 10 and run a route on less than two-thirds of the dropbacks. He's played less as the team has worked in rookies Oronde Gadsden II at tight end and Tre Harris as a blocking receiver. There's little reason those guys should lose playing time as their first seasons wear on. That makes Allen a risky flex play at best in fantasy.
Courtland Sutton
I've always disagreed with the idea that Sutton is some steady veteran option in fantasy football, as was the preseason narrative on the Broncos wideout. A good but not great No. 1 wide receiver like Sutton, who almost always lines up at X-receiver, is going to be more vulnerable to chaos within the offense than a guy who moves around the formation. Denver's offense has certainly been chaotic with Bo Nix playing poorly in his second season. As such, the ball has gone away from Sutton more often than not, as he has 29 targets to 41 for Troy Franklin in this stretch. Franklin's emergence as a solid slot receiver who gets some designed touches has hurt Sutton's bottom line. The veteran will still have some weeks going forward but the expectations should have changed by now.
Emeka Egbuka
This one is easy and I have zero concerns about Emeka Egbuka going forward. If the rookie didn't injure his hamstring in the Week 6 win over the 49ers and then play through in the two games before their Week 9 bye, I doubt we're even having this conversation. A healthy Egbuka came back in Week 10 and immediately cleared 110 yards and scored against the Patriots. He is a WR1 the rest of the way and you can completely ignore a small and easily explainable blip in his rookie season.
Rome Odunze
Similar to Emeka Egbuka above, I'm not close to panicking about the Bears' young star receiver. Odunze had a touchdown called back due to an illegal formation in Week 6 and then dropped a zero in Week 9, which is overly penalizing his per-game results. While that zero always stings, it was easy to explain away why it happened as the Bears offense found success elsewhere; he was sacrificed to the best defensive back on the Bengals while playing through a heel injury.
Panic Meter: Rome OdunzeHere's why the 0 in Week 9 happened... pic.twitter.com/yd5pJTQK4z
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) November 5, 2025
Odunze does need to clean up some drops and issues in contested situations but otherwise, as long as he's healthy, he should be a high-level wide receiver going forward. He reminded us of that in Week 10, as he led the team with 10 targets, cleared 80 yards and scored his sixth touchdown of the season in response to the zero-catch game.
DK Metcalf
In my mind, Metcalf was always going to be volatile in this Steelers offense because of the lack of volume available. He's cleared seven targets just once this season. That's going to lead to some painfully cold stretches like the one we're in now with Metcalf, where he is averaging 3.3 catches over his last four games. You need him to score a touchdown or rip a big play on his own in order to hit as a fantasy option. We've seen that happen plenty throughout the season to date, so he isn't a panic-based player or anything. However, you just need to be willing to live with the ups and downs.
Zay Flowers
In Weeks 1 to 5, Zay Flowers held a 28.8% share of the Ravens targets and a 32.2% share of the air yards. In Weeks 6 to 10, he's at 28.6% and 33.1%. So, not much has changed for Flowers in terms of his involvement in the offense. He just hasn't quite converted on some of the big-play chances we saw in the first two weeks of the season.
Now that we are more than two games back into Lamar Jackson's return as the starter, I'm confident we'll see some more ceiling weeks from Flowers. He's probably not the WR1 he looked like in the first two weeks but better days should be ahead.
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison
This one all comes down to quarterback play. If J.J. McCarthy can turn his season around and get this offense rolling, we know both Addison and especially Jefferson can be productive wideouts. It's only four starts into McCarthy's career, so I don't want to rush to judgment on the young passer. However, the signs we've seen to this point haven't been encouraging. If you're optimistic about either guy going forward, it's purely a faith-based argument. That doesn't make it wrong to bet on the hope but it's where the die is cast, at the moment.
Puka Nacua
Nacua was on a torrid pace to start the 2025 season and oftentimes those elite stretches tend to run dry at some point. We should also acknowledge that Nacua suffered an injury in Week 6 that caused him to only play 53% of the snaps against the Ravens and miss Week 7. He also got banged up again in the first game he returned from the bye week. That's always part of the risk with Nacua, given his play style, but it's one worth living with.
One small concern I'm monitoring is that the Rams have really leaned into 13 personnel at an unusually high rate over the last few weeks, especially the last two coming out of their bye.
Sean McVay has claimed 13 personnel, and I'm not sure he'll ever give it up.In the last 4 weeks, the Rams played an astonishing 40% of snaps in 13 personnel.When the Rams play 13 personnel, their opponents responded 93% of the time with a variation of Base defense.The… pic.twitter.com/yCUozQmucG
— Josh (@JoshiosTweets) November 10, 2025
L.A. averages over 180 yards per game out of 13 personnel the last two weeks, so it's hard to imagine them abandoning the look. When they get into those packages, Nacua is almost never the lone wideout on the field. In fact, he has run zero routes from 13 personnel the last two weeks. Again, I'm not panicking over this but it's something to watch for, especially during their big game on Sunday against the Seahawks.
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Published: November 13, 2025 at 11:28PM on Source: MORNING MAG
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Examining fantasy football WR production from Weeks 15 and 610: Who's on an upward trajectory — or downward spir...
